Decoding Disaster: Social Media, Sense-Making, and Severe Weather Warnings

(0:00) S. Tabibian: Welcome to the Climate Map podcast. The Climate Map, an initiative founded by Covalence Global, outlines the complexities of climate change on a streamlined, action-oriented mind map. This podcast is an archive for our research, highlighting conversations with entrepreneurs, scientists, policymakers, and designers. 

(00:17) S. Tabibian: My name is Sophia Tabibian, and I'm your host and the co -founder of Covalence Global. I'm joined here today by Dr. Amber Silver, Assistant Professor for the Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security. In this episode, we decode disaster, looking at the role of social media, sense-making, and severe warnings. 

(00:35) S. Tabibian: Tell us a little bit about yourself, where are you from, and how did you first develop an interest in emergency preparedness and environmental management? 

(00:44) Dr. Silver: Absolutely. So I'm an assistant professor in the Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security at the University at Albany. Before I came to the University at Albany, I did my undergrad in geography at St. Mary's University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. I did my master's and my PhD in geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada. And geography is definitely my passion. I would say it's probably been a passion of mine for my entire adult life. I would broadly describe myself as a hazards geographer. By that, I mean I'm interested in the ways that information influences decision-making, which in turn influences behaviors. So in my case, as a hazards geographer, I'm interested in how weather information, in whatever form that takes, influences protective action decision-making during high-risk short notice disasters. 

(01:40) S. Tabibian: So what are your specific research interests in those fields, and what methods do you employ to discover your key findings? 

(01:48) Dr. Silver: I am deeply passionate about the intersection between weather and society. So the high-risk short-notice disasters I mentioned earlier that I study are almost exclusively weather disasters. So I've done research on hurricanes and tornadoes and floods and the like. And as a geographer, I'm really fascinated by the reciprocal and dynamic relationship between people and their environment, especially when that environment is a catalyst for change. I am a social scientist, which means that I employ a variety of different methods in my research. Most commonly, I utilize large sample questionnaires, but I've also used interviews, focus groups, and social media analytics in my research. 

(02:34) S. Tabibian: Tell us a little bit about your experience at the High Impact Weather Working Group. What was your role in the group? And what were your key accomplishments? 

(02:43) Dr. Silver: Right. So High Weather, or the High Impact Weather Project, was a working group of the World Meteorological Organization. It was a 10-year project, which we're actually just wrapping up this fall, and it brought together researchers, practitioners, and other experts from around the world to sort of share evidence-based best practice and to facilitate knowledge exchange with the goal of better understanding five key research areas: predictability and processes, multi scale forecasting, user-oriented evaluation, human impacts, risk vulnerability, and then communications. And so I was a part of the communications group. And so we were researching the best, or the most effective, I guess, ways to communicate weather information with different publics. 

(03:30) S. Tabibian: Wow. So tell us a little bit now about your recent research on how modern technologies affect obtaining, interpreting, and responding to official and unofficial warning information. 

(03:42) Dr. Silver: So I have spent a lot of time investigating how people perceive weather in its different forms. We think of weather information as a spectrum from very official information, so like official watches and warnings and other government messages, to sort of very informal, which would be like chatting with your neighbor on the street or sharing something on social media. I'm interested in the full spectrum, unofficial and official. And I'm interested in the ways that information is perceived, understood, and acted upon, particularly in the context of protective action decision-making. 

(04:16) Dr. Silver: So for example, imagine a Category 3 hurricane was bearing down on your community. I want to know, do people go out and buy supplies? If so, when are they going? What supplies are they purchasing? What motivated them to take that action? If they're not going out and buying supplies, why not? Why aren't they doing that? Are people dismissing the risk? Do they misunderstand the risk? Or are there barriers and constraints that are limiting what actions different people and groups can take to prepare for the storm? If people are evacuating, if people are not evacuating, if they're seeking shelter, where they're getting information, what motivates them to do so. These and other questions are crucial to understanding human behavior when we are faced with potentially life-threatening situations. Because remember, emergency management is about reducing losses. So, loss to life, to property, to the economy, and getting back to normal as quickly as possible. And to do that, we need to understand how people are making decisions about what to do when confronted with disaster and when. 

(05:26) S. Tabibian: What role do you think social media censorship plays in response to warning information and how people make decisions? 

(05:35) Dr. Silver: So, that is a very interesting question. Social media has had a profound effect on the ways we communicate with one another, particularly the ways we communicate about risk. In the context of disasters, social media is used in so many different ways. It can be used to communicate information about on the ground impacts and community needs. It can be used to share information about local conditions and impacts. It could be used to organize search and rescue parties or solicit donations or to posting pleas of assistance. And we see it all the time. 

(06:15) Dr. Silver: So for instance, after Hurricane Sandy, New York City 911 was very quickly overwhelmed with calls for assistance. To put this into context, New York City 911 typically receives about 4,400 calls a day. During Hurricane Sandy, the height of Hurricane Sandy, New York City 911 was receiving 20,000 calls an hour. So very quickly, it was at capacity. So when people called, they would get a fast busy or a voicemail recording. They couldn't get through. And often people were calling with life and death situations. So they were trapped in the attic and the water was rising, or they hadn't heard from their elderly parent who lived in an area that was flooded. These are very serious calls. And so when people couldn't get through to 911, they turned to social media, particularly Twitter, and they would tweet out calls for assistance. And so we know that this happens all the time in disaster. 

(07:14) Dr. Silver: And I know your question was about media censorship. So I haven't studied media censorship specifically, but there are plenty of case studies in our recent past that can provide some insights about how media censorship can affect communication during disaster. So for example, in 2023, there was an earthquake that affected Turkey and Syria, caused widespread damages, resulted in tens of thousands of people dying, many more people injured and displaced. In the immediate aftermath of the quake, Turkey's government actually limited access to the internet, specifically limiting access to social media. Now at the time, the government justified this action by saying that there was concerns about misinformation, so untrue claims, slander, fraudulent intent, etc. But we know that Twitter is a common means for people to share information about on-the-ground impacts and community needs, and crucially it's a way for those people to get through and get help when they can't get through to 911. 

(08:16) Dr. Silver: And that makes sense, right? So if you are trapped in the rubble of a building, you probably are not going to have cell phone connectivity to connect to emergency services long enough to have a conversation about where you are. Sometimes connectivity is only a second or two. So not enough for a 911 call, but certainly enough to compose a tweet and to send that tweet out saying, you know, I'm still alive, I need help, this is where my building was located. And so unfortunately, the government's decision to limit access to Twitter in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake did have ramifications for soliciting aid, assisting in recovery, and search and rescue. 

(08:58) S. Tabibian: That's really interesting. I never really thought about, especially how those themes translate into Pakistan. I mean, last month, I uploaded an episode with a computational climate scientist in Pakistan, and people literally couldn't listen to the Spotify because it was banned in Pakistan. There's this definition of sense making that you discussed, so what is your personal definition of sense making and how does the media affect sense making? 

(09:24) Dr. Silver: Sense-making is literally just the act of making sense of the world around us and our place in that world. And that's it. That's all it is. And we, as humans, we do it all the time. Sense-making in the context of disasters is about coming to terms with change, right, especially change in our environment. Change that is often violent, and calamitous, and dangerous, change that can threaten our lives, and our livelihoods, and our loved places. So the ways we make sense in those situations really depends on who we are. So it depends on our lived experiences, our beliefs, whether our cultural beliefs, or political beliefs, or spiritual beliefs, our understanding of who we are as individuals, and our expectations of those around us. 

(10:17) Dr. Silver: Sense-making in the context of disaster is closely related to a similar concept called milling. So milling is this process whereby we're confronted with a threat, and we start this process of gathering information. So we're trying to verify whether or not the threat is real, we need to determine whether or not it's relevant to us, so is this something that I need to be concerned about? And if it's real, and if it's personally relevant, I need to determine sort of what risks I, or we, are facing, and then what I do about it. So like sense-making, this is happening all the time. We're constantly gathering information in the context of disaster. Now, both sense making and milling are precursors to action. So this is all the stuff that's happening inside of our heads when we are trying to figure out what is the risk? Is it personally relevant? Is it immediate? Do I need to do something about it? What does that mean? And what actions do I take, if any? And so all of that process, that internal process of making sense and milling and gathering information, contributes to what actions we take, if any. 

(11:21) S. Tabibian: Very interesting, so now kind of shifting from your general research to more specifically extreme weather and climate change, tell us about the human dimensions of severe weather and climate change. What facets of risk perception, communication and behavioral response must we consider? 

(11:40) Dr. Silver: A great deal of my research focuses on the best or the most effective ways to communicate weather information to the public. But in many ways, communicating about the weather is easy, at least in comparison to communicating about climate change. And that's because weather threats are often visible, they're familiar, and they're easily understood. Again, not always, but often, and again, in comparison to climate change. It is a great deal, more challenging, to communicate and educate the public about climate change and the risks posed by the change in climate. The reasons for this are nuanced, and profound, and varied, and complicated, and actually goes back to our discussion on sense-making. 

(12:31) Dr. Silver: So first and foremost, it is human nature to put off, downplay, or even ignore threats we might face in the future. We do it all the time as a species. It's why many people are sedentary. It's why we drink alcohol or smoke tobacco or vape. It's why we eat unhealthy food. We know it's not good for us to do those things, but we do it anyway. Because if it's going to be a problem, it's going to be a future tense problem. So why would I change things that I enjoy doing now for something that may or may not happen 10, 20, 30 years in the future? 

(13:11) Dr. Silver: Second, it is human nature to downplay or ignore risks that aren't immediately relevant to us. Again, we do it all the time. And actually, it's a cognitive coping mechanism. It's evolutionary. We cannot be devastated by every tragedy in the world. We can't. We would be completely unable to function. So we can compartmentalize, and we can downplay and ignore things that aren't necessarily immediately relevant to us. 

(13:41) Dr. Silver: It's also a fact that areas that will be most impacted by climate change or most dramatically impacted by climate change, places like the territorial north, low-lying island states, semi-arid regions are elsewhere. And I'm speaking specifically in the context of the United States. That's not to say the United States isn't at risk. Of course we are, and we are enormously at risk of climate change. But a lot of the narratives surrounding climate change, just think of the imagery that we always think about, right? So we talk about melting polar ice caps, and rising sea levels, and starving polar bears. And if you don't live where there are ice caps, and polar bears, or immediately on the coast, then it might be easy to downplay or ignore those things as "not my problem." 

(14:26) Dr. Silver: Third, it is human nature to resist change, especially change that is perceived to be bad. And the reality is that there are powerful forces in this country and abroad that are painting the climate change issue in a very particular way. They say that green energy is ineffective, that it's expensive, that it will put working class Americans out of work, that it will shut down communities, it will bankrupt families, and that it's all just academic, alarmist propaganda, that scientists and researchers are just lying to the American public so that we can publish papers and get grants. And of course, that is complete and utter nonsense. Big oil is one of the most profitable, powerful lobbies on earth. But it is effective. People don't want to change, especially when that change is inconvenient or uncertain. And this is a very convenient narrative to slip into to resist that change. 

(15:25) Dr. Silver: And lastly, going back to our conversation about sense-making, it's difficult to convince people about climate change if it goes against their fundamental understanding of the world and their place in it. Some people believe sincerely, deeply, profoundly, that we cannot affect the earth's climate, that either we are too small and insignificant, or that we can't affect the earth's climate, because that would go against some divine providence. And so that isn't really true. That's a different conversation about how we frame the climate change discussion in a narrative where people believe deeply to their core that their sense of the world around them is that climate change just isn't possible. 

(16:11) Dr. Silver: All four of those points are really, really thought provoking. Shifting to the difference between developed and developing countries, how do human dimensions of climate change and extreme weather compare in a developed country like the US versus a developing country? 

(16:28) Dr. Silver: So again, I'm not necessarily a scholar that does a lot of research looking into the context of developing countries, but there's two things that immediately come to mind, and it's impacts and barriers and constraints. So as I mentioned earlier, many of the countries that are going to be suffering a disproportionate amount of impacts, negative impacts from climate change, are developing countries. So they are areas in semi-arid regions of Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, it can be low-lying island states, it can be low-lying coastal areas, the territorial north, whatever have you. And so there is an immediacy there that is maybe not as obvious or not as present yet in the United States. So this is something that, there are low-lying island states today that are putting plans into place to evacuate their entire population within 50 years because if the sea level continues to rise at a rate that it has been for the last two decades, their island won't exist in 30 years. So there is the immediacy piece. 

(17:34) Dr. Silver: The next piece is the barriers and constraints. The biggest difference between developing and developed countries, of course, is gross domestic product, is the amount of funds that they have available, both individually and collectively in terms of government, to address issues of climate change. So to mitigate against potential threats, to respond when an event occurs to, you know, whatever else have you. And so there is a capacity issue there that is not the case in the United States or not as significant in the United States. So not only is climate change more immediate and the effects more severe in many of these developing countries, their capacity to do anything about it is limited compared to that of the United States and other Western countries or other developed countries. 

(18:26) S. Tabibian: Yeah, definitely. I think capacity is probably one of the largest issues that's constantly being talked about in these developing countries. And to sort of draw between all of the great insights you've made, what are some parallels between sense-making, intergenerational knowledge, and climate change? 

(18:44) Dr. Silver: We often talk about something called traditional ecological knowledge. This is environmental knowledge that has been passed down from one generation to the next, going back hundreds of years. Often, and particularly in the context of indigenous peoples, traditional ecological knowledge has a spiritual element. It's not just information about weather patterns or the migratory patterns of animals. It's about understanding, and making sense of, and attributing meaning to the world around us. So it's spiritual, it's cultural, and it's deeply meaningful. Now, many people living traditional lifestyles rely on traditional ecological knowledge. So it tells them when it's safe to go out on the ice. It tells them when to expect migration of caribou or whales. It tells them when it's safe to plant certain crops, or when they need to harvest those crops. 

(19:39) Dr. Silver: Unfortunately, traditional ecological knowledge is becoming less and less reliable as climate becomes more and more unpredictable, and this is not a new phenomenon. In the U .S., we're starting to see real impacts from climate change, but in the territorial north, for example, this has been happening for decades, and the impacts have been very profound in these traditional communities that rely on their traditional ecological knowledge for their well-being, for their lifestyle, for their income. And so that has been a real challenge in many of these communities. 

(20:18) S. Tabibian: To close off, what is your vision for the future of your field? How can our listeners be part of that vision? 

(20:24) Dr. Silver: So as I mentioned, I am a hazards geographer. I'm a social scientist, and I'm deeply passionate about this intersection between weather and society. So moving forward in our field, I see us focusing more on the ways that we are using different technologies to communicate with one another. So social media marked a revolution in the ways that we communicate with one another, particularly the ways that we communicate at both risk. But it was by no means the last sort of pivotal or revolutionary technology that we as a species is going to create. 

(20:55) Dr. Silver: So for instance, right now there's conversations about how artificial intelligence is going to impact weather forecasting and communicating weather information to the public. So there's debates about, do we use AI in summarizing forecast data? What are the ethics surrounding that? What are the challenges and the benefits surrounding that? How will that impact the way information is perceived? 

(21:21) Dr. Silver: So for example, we develop relationships all the time, but we also develop relationships with experts. So we might have a favorite storm chaser, or we might have a favorite weathercaster that we trust, or we might have a favorite personality on social media who's reporting the weather. And so you develop a very intrinsic, very meaningful relationship with these people. It's called parasocial relationships. And so there's real concern that if we just let AI do all the work in interpreting the forecast, A, are those forecasts going to be accurate? B, do they communicate information reliably? But C, how is that information going to be interpreted by the public? Is it going to be as interpreted as trustworthy? Is it going to be relied upon in the same way? Are people going to be incorporating that information into their decision-making processes in the same way? 

(22:10) Dr. Silver: And so in terms of our vision for the future, certainly understanding how all of these different technologies are affecting the ways we communicate with one another, particularly the ways that we communicate about risk.  And if people are interested in learning more about weather in risking crisis communication or weather in society. There's lots of resources online. I think that my bio will be shared as part of this podcast. I welcome anyone to reach out with any questions. Yeah, it's an exciting time in the field for a lot of reasons, challenging for some, such as climate change, exciting for others, such as the capacity for AI to maybe revolutionize the field. So it'd be really interesting to see where we are in 10, 15, 20 years or longer. 

(22:35) S. Tabibian: Thank you so much for your time, Dr. Silver. And that is it for the Climate Map today. Please visit the-climate-map.org to learn more about how you can get involved with us.